Biogenic residues as a circular carbon feedstock for the chemical industry: A spatially explicit technical potential assessment for Germany

The chemical industry, to this day, remains heavily reliant on fossil carbon. To adhere to climate targets, there is a need to find alternative, circular carbon sources. One key contributor is biogenic residues. This paper determines the spatially explicit technical carbon potential of 23 residue streams from four different origin classes. The goal is to calculate the carbon potential for green methanol production as feedstock for the German chemical industry. While the physical carbon potential is dominated by cereal straw and logging residues, the theoretical carbon potential shows a broader distribution across residue streams. The mobilisable theoretical carbon potential demonstrates that by-products of the wood processing industry and wood shavings, which are currently primarily used for energy purposes, have a high relevance for material applications instead. In terms of the final technical potential, cereal straw (3.72 Mt C /a) and green waste (3.67 Mt C /a) are leading contributors. The carbon potentials show spatial inhomogeneities across the NUTS3 regions. This information, together with the classification of districts according to their dominant origin class, provides key insights for the siting of large-scale chemical recycling plants. The total technical carbon potential (without economic considerations, dependent on H 2 supply) for the mean scenario ranges from 7.20–14.69 Mt C /a, which is equal to 90–184% of the expected feedstock carbon demand for green methanol. With increasing competition around biogenic residues, this study provides a spatially resolved basis for assessing their potential role in defossilising carbon supply chains.