Measuring the rise and fall of countries: the Comprehensive National Power Index

Which countries are rising, which are declining, and how can we measure these trends? To address these questions, we developed the Comprehensive National Power Index (CNPI), which systematically quantifies power based on three equally weighted components: military capabilities, economic strength, and soft power. Spanning 186 countries from 2011 to 2023, the CNPI offers a transparent, theory-driven methodology that improves upon existing measures by balancing aggregate and net indicators while capturing both elements of soft power—persuasiveness and attractiveness—and accounting for the contributions of both the state and society. Operationalizing these elements as a readily updatable and easily adaptable statistical model enables the CNPI to identify trends in the global distribution of power. Our analysis reveals that while the United States retained primacy across all three components, China, South Korea, and India rose rapidly. Despite China’s substantial gains, as of 2023, it had yet to attain peer-competitor status with the United States. Conversely, Japan, Russia, the UK, France, and Canada all experienced contractions in their national power. These trajectories reflect the fundamental reorientation of global power over the study period. By replacing impressionistic assumptions with systematic data, the CNPI offers a rigorous empirical methodology for quantifying structural shifts in the international system.