Thermodynamic and Dynamic Analysis of Indian Monsoon Extremes and Agricultural Sustainability: A Review

Monsoon systems are a critical component of the Earth’s atmospheric circulation and play a central role in shaping agricultural economies, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Changes in the atmospheric physics of monsoons—driven by variations in land–sea thermal contrast, large-scale circulation patterns, moisture transport, and cloud–radiative feedbacks—have led to increasing variability in the timing, intensity, and spatial distribution of rainfall. These changes directly affect agricultural productivity by influencing sowing periods, crop growth cycles, soil moisture availability, and irrigation demand. Recent observational and modeling studies indicate that climate change has altered monsoon dynamics through warming-induced shifts in atmospheric stability, enhanced water vapor content, and modifications of regional circulation such as the Hadley and Walker cells. As a result, agricultural economies are experiencing heightened risks from extreme events, including prolonged droughts, intense rainfall, and flooding, which disrupt food production, rural livelihoods, and market stability. Understanding the atmospheric physics underlying monsoon variability is therefore essential for improving seasonal forecasts, developing climate-resilient agricultural practices, and informing policy frameworks aimed at sustaining agricultural economies under changing climatic conditions.