Environmental drivers and larval dynamics of Limnoperna fortunei (Dunker, 1857) in a Neotropical floodplain: towards a conceptual model for distribution and habitat suitability

Predictive models of abundance are valuable for assessing how environmental factors influence the susceptibility of areas to colonization by non-native species. Limnoperna fortunei, native to Southeast Asia, is an invasive species in South America with potential impacts similar to those of Dreissena polymorpha in North America and Europe. In this study, we evaluated the influence of limnological factors on the structure and abundance of L. fortunei larvae across three fluvial systems in the Upper Paraná River floodplain. We addressed two main questions: (1) which limnological features are most important for the establishment of L. fortunei in a given area, and (2) how do these features influence the population dynamics of this invader? Our results revealed that L. fortunei larval densities were significantly affected by both spatial and temporal variations in limnological factors. Higher temperatures, chlorophyll-a concentrations, and turbidity were associated with increased reproduction rates and larval densities of L. fortunei. Conversely, high water velocity and water levels were linked to larger proportions of larger and damaged larvae, suggesting that these conditions may hinder successful establishment. Our findings indicate that L. fortunei thrives particularly well in warmer and more productive waters. We advocate for future research on the dispersal of L. fortunei to incorporate these environmental predictors, better forecasting the risk of successful colonization.