Abstract Fusarium head blight (FHB) poses a major threat to wheat cultivation in Korea. Given that FHB coincides with warm and wet conditions during the flowering period, climate change is projected to exacerbate the risk to wheat crops in Korea. Thus, there is an immediate need to develop effective and scientifically sound adaptation measures. A major hurdle in achieving this goal has been insufficient consideration of local agroeconomic factors and a tendency to rely on meteorological scenarios. By addressing this knowledge gap, we aimed to identify alternative wheat cultivars that can maximize yields under projected FHB epidemics. In this study, we used biophysical models and all available agroeconomic information on wheat in Korea, along with the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) climate change scenarios. We initially simulated the potential FHB epidemics in Korea by linking a wheat phenology model to an FHB infection model. The simulation results indicated heterogeneous projections, with substantial increases in future FHB infection risk under certain scenarios. Thereafter, using three cultivar-specific traits—heading date, FHB resistance level, and yield potential—from 40 wheat cultivars, together with projected FHB incidence, we estimated their future yields. Finally, after considering present-day market availability, the Saegeumgang cultivar, together with other yet-to-be-released cultivars, was proposed as the best alternative wheat cultivar for effective adaptation in Korea. Collectively, these results will provide scientific evidence for policymakers and agricultural stakeholders to facilitate the pragmatic selection of climate-resilient cultivars capable of adapting to the future threat of FHB.
Lee et al. (Wed,) studied this question.