Global threat of Fusarium head blight to wheat production: Projecting host‐pathogen overlap under climate change

Societal Impact Statement Wheat is one of the world's most important staple crops, but its production is increasingly threatened by Fusarium head blight, a disease that reduces yield and grain quality. We mapped where wheat and its major disease‐causing fungi are likely to overlap now and under future climate change. Our results show that several major wheat‐producing regions may remain or become persistently vulnerable, including parts of North America, South America, Europe, East Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. These findings can help guide disease monitoring, resistant cultivar deployment and climate‐adaptive crop protection strategies to support global food security. Summary Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a major fungal disease threatening global wheat ( Triticum aestivum ) production and food security. Because climate change may alter the distributions of both wheat and its causal pathogens, this study aimed to assess current and future global FHB risk by identifying areas where host and pathogen suitability overlap. We modeled the potential distributions of wheat and two major FHB pathogens, Fusarium graminearum and F. asiaticum , using an ensemble framework integrating MaxEnt and random forest algorithms. Future projections were generated for 2050 and 2090 under two climate scenarios, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, using multiple general circulation models. Fusarium graminearum was projected to remain globally widespread, with pronounced northward expansion in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas F. asiaticum was projected to expand further northward in Northeast Asia. Wheat suitability also showed a poleward shift, increasing spatial convergence between host and pathogen distributions. Persistently high‐risk regions were identified in the eastern United States, southeastern South America, Europe, East Asia, southeastern Australia, and New Zealand. These findings indicate that climate change may broaden and intensify global FHB risk by increasing the spatial alignment between wheat and major Fusarium pathogens. The study provides a scientific basis for proactive disease surveillance, targeted deployment of resistant cultivars, and climate‐adaptive management strategies to safeguard wheat production and global food security.