Strategic options for Baltic states to bridge the deterrence gap in Trump′s era

The current study focuses on the political and strategic turbulence within the transatlantic security community and its implications for maintaining effective deterrence and defense in Europe, particularly in the Baltic states, against Russia. While Ukraine had already suffered from the lack of full United States’ support during Biden’s presidency, the deficit has deepened after the first years of Trump’s presidency. However, for the Baltic states bordering Russia, the potential withdrawal of US military support from Europe, as well as the insufficient levels of stocks and defense readiness among European states, has created a significant and growing security vacuum. The challenges lie in both establishing a sufficient deterrence threshold and maintaining it sustainably. In this situation, is there hope that unity and committed solidarity within NATO will return in the coming years, or should the Baltic states make the bitter choice between loyalty to the US, cooperation with continental NATO powers, or creating regional alliances? Related dilemmas also arise in practical situations when making choices about weapon procurement and military modernization. In this situation, should the deals with the US administration and producers continue, or should Baltic states look for their own, autonomous local and regional alternatives? Is the time to make those choices as soon as possible, or delay decisions as long as possible?