The subject of the study is the prospects of civilizational development in the context of the growing gap between the complexity of the tasks facing humanity and the cognitive abilities of humans. The current state of civilization is examined, characterized by the uncertainty of the social buffer – a system of institutions, technologies, and social connections that mediate human interaction with the resource base. Short-term, medium-term (10–30 years), and long-term prospects of civilizational development are analyzed. In the medium-term perspective, two extreme scenarios are identified: the optimization of the existing system through artificial intelligence and the degradation of social connections with a loss of systemic subjectivity. The long-term perspective considers the inevitability of cognitive expansion of humans and the structural transformation of the social buffer – its transition from the function of an environment to the function of an exoskeleton, that is, an inseparable functional expansion of human cognitive and operational capabilities. The study is based on systemic and interdisciplinary approaches, employing methods of scenario analysis, theoretical modeling, and extrapolation of identified trends. A previously developed proprietary analytical framework is used. The scientific novelty lies in the application of a unified analytical framework for the sequential consideration of short-term, medium-term, and long-term civilizational development prospects as stages of a single process. It is shown for the first time that the structural transformation of the social buffer – its transition from the function of an environment to that of an exoskeleton – is not one of the possible scenarios, but a logical consequence of the law of need satisfaction and the limitations of biological cognitive resources. It has been established that the medium-term perspective represents a critical period in which the nature of social connections – utilitarian or psycho-emotional – determines whether civilization will maintain the capacity for purposeful action necessary for the transition. It is concluded that the intensification of resource base use, understood as an increase in useful output per unit of cost, is the only long-term sustainable strategy, and that cognitive expansion is a necessary condition for such intensification.
Andrey A. Gribkov (Fri,) studied this question.