Toward a General Theory of Adaptive Civilization: A System Logic Framework for Civilizational Risk, Resilience, and Long-Term Survival

The first seven papers in the System Logic series established systemic adequacy, boundary and time, local optimization and systemic failure, feedback and systemic correction, the Systemic Impact Ledger, the System Logic of social cooperation from private good to public good, and the theory of institutional adaptation and public good civilization. Together, these foundations converge on a fundamental question: how can human civilization, as an integrated macro-system, sustain long-term adaptive capacity in the face of profound uncertainty? This paper proposes adaptive civilization as the core concept of System Logic at the civilizational level. Adaptive civilization does not denote a specific civilizational morphology but a systemic capacity: the ability of a civilization to continuously perceive disequilibrium, transmit feedback, form judgments, organize adjustment, and facilitate learning amid environmental change, resource constraints, internal conflict, technological disruption, and intergenerational transfer, thereby maintaining long-term viability, resilience, restorative capacity, and future option space. The paper argues that civilizational failure is rarely the consequence of a singular exogenous shock; it is more often the cumulative result of prolonged deficits in adaptive capacity. Civilizational risks primarily stem from four structural mismatches: boundary mismatch, temporal mismatch, level mismatch, and feedback mismatch. The paper proposes five necessary conditions for an adaptive civilization: internalization of ecological constraints, institutionalization of intergenerational justice, coordination of global governance, controllability of technological risk, and continuity of civilizational learning. It further distinguishes three levels of civilizational adaptation—operational, structural, and transformational—analyzes six pathological forms of civilizational failure, and proposes six design principles for adaptive civilizations. The framework is demonstrated through six cases: climate change, artificial intelligence governance, biodiversity conservation, global public health, nuclear risk governance, and interstellar civilization. By discussing theoretical boundaries and falsifiability conditions, the paper completes the theoretical closure of the System Logic series, bridging systemic adequacy and adaptive civilization.