The association of silent electrocardiographic findings with coronary deaths among elderly men in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: Ten-year coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in elderly male cohorts in three European countries was evaluated as a function of silent resting Minnesota Code electrocardiographic (ECG) findings found at baseline. METHODS AND RESULTS: Men aged 65-84 at entry were enrolled, examined and followed up for 10 years in 5 cohorts of three countries: Finland (N=716), the Netherlands (N= 887), and Italy (N = 682). Men with symptomatic angina pectoris, a documented history of myocardial infarction or heart failure were excluded from analysis, leaving 505 men in Finland, 713 in the Netherlands and 567 in Italy. ECG abnormalities were arranged in different groupings. Multivariate analyses adjusted ECG prediction of CHD mortality for cohort, and baseline age, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, body mass index and cigarette smoking. RESULTS: Silent ECG abnormalities of presumed severity were found in more than half of these elderly men, with higher prevalence in Finland, compared to the other two countries. Adjusted hazards ratios for CHD deaths as a function of major single or combined ECG abnormalities, such as QQS and ST-T abnormalities, arrhythmia, definite and possible myocardial infarction and an operative definition of ischaemia, are generally similar across areas varying according to severity from around 1.5 to almost 4. Groupings of minor and major ECG abnormalities in the pooled countries gave significant relative risks of 1.79 and 3.12 respectively, compared to the group without or with marginal abnormalities. Sensitivity and positive predictive value were low, while specificity was high. CONCLUSIONS: Silent ECG abnormalities in elderly people are common and they carry a high risk of coronary death in the next 10 years, with relative risk ranging from around 1.5 to almost 4 or more depending upon severity and combination of findings.