Sustainable Agri-Energy Systems in Semi-Arid Regions: A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Turgutlu, Türkiye

This study develops an integrated assessment framework for sustainable agri-energy systems in semi-arid regions. Using Turgutlu, Türkiye as a case study, eleven potential bioenergy crops—Agave americana, Opuntia ficus-indica, Miscanthus giganteus, Zea mays, Helianthus annuus, Cannabis sativa, Nicotiana tabacum, Olea europaea, Ficus carica, Vitis vinifera, and Cucumis melo—were evaluated. A hybrid methodology combining Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA), Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and Monte Carlo–based robustness analysis was employed. Results indicate that Agave americana and Opuntia ficus-indica represent the most sustainable options due to their low water demand, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and stable economic performance. Miscanthus giganteus stands out as a long-term strategic option due to its high energy yield. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated that Agave and Opuntia maintained the highest robustness under varying criterion weights. LCA results further revealed that these species occupy the “ideal environmental zone,” characterized by low GHG emissions and high Net Energy Ratios (NER). The integration of TEA, LCA, and MCDM methods forms a structured basis for quantitative decision support framework for regional energy planning, emphasizing the prioritization of water-efficient energy crops in semi-arid ecosystems.