Structural lock-in and low-carbon transition in coal-dependent regions: Insights from China's Coal Triangle Region

The Coal Triangle Region, comprising Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Ningxia, is the world's largest coal-producing region, accounting for 72% of China's output and 38% of the global total in 2025. As China advances its decarbonization agenda, the region faces a transition problem of reducing coal dependence while maintaining energy security, industrial stability, and employment security. This review synthesizes insights from academic literature, policy reports, and relevant databases to examine the region's structural characteristics, transition pathways, and policy frameworks. It identifies strong structural lock-in, with coal-based industries contributing 20.3% of regional industrial GDP in 2024 and remaining a cornerstone of regional economic development. This dependence constrains both the timing and pace of low-carbon transition. Consequently, the region is expected to peak later than the national average, with a slower post-peak decline in emissions. Deep decarbonization will require a shift from production-control measures to technology-driven mitigation, particularly through renewable power expansion, hydrogen-based industrial pathways, and carbon dioxide removal technologies. The transition also poses major social challenges, as declining coal demand may lead to job losses and skill mismatches among the more than 2 million coal-related workers. Addressing these interconnected challenges requires a comprehensive just transition framework integrating industrial decarbonization, clean-energy substitution, employment resilience, transition finance, and interregional burden sharing. This review provides policy-relevant insights for advancing low-carbon transition in coal-dependent regions in China and beyond.