Energy-related industrial CO2 pathways toward carbon neutrality in Shandong, a coal-intensive Chinese province: A structural decarbonization and abatement cost approach

Industrial decarbonization in coal-intensive provinces is central to China’s dual-carbon goals. However, most provincial scenario studies project future emissions without attributing reductions to transition packages, comparing electrification and hydrogen within one framework, or testing whether cleaner pathways are economically feasible. This study addresses these three gaps. It combines a bottom-up Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) scenario model, a Structural Clean Performance Index (SCPI), and a CAPEX-adjusted Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis into an integrated LEAP–SCPI–MAC framework, applied to eight industrial subsectors in Shandong Province, China’s most consequential industrial emitter, from 2022 to 2060. LEAP simulated five pathways—structural adjustment (S2), renewable electrification (S3a), hydrogen integration (S3b), and an integrated transition (S4) against a business-as-usual (BAU) baseline (S1)—and each pathway was then evaluated using SCPI and MAC (r = 8%). Under the existing policies, energy-related industrial CO 2 decreased from 847.8 Mt in 2022 to 484.9 Mt in 2060. The integrated transition reached 20.4 Mt, the highest SCPI (0.995), and a negative partial-system MAC (−402 CNY tCO 2 −1 ) that stems from reduced activity; its energy-structure component was positive (+58 CNY tCO 2 −1 ). Electrification combined with grid decarbonization was the medium-term backbone, hydrogen was a later, sector-specific complement, and structural adjustment lowered energy costs but was structurally insufficient. Moreover, cement and petroleum refining remained the main residual bottlenecks. Thus, the preferred pathway is not the one with the most negative MAC but a staged, sector-differentiated combination of levers, a pattern that may hold in other heavy-industrial regions where no single lever dominates.