Hidden or declared? Evidence from a list experiment on homophobic motives in electoral behavior

Do voters discriminate against gay candidates in elections for high political office, and are they willing to admit it? This study examines Finland’s 2024 presidential election using a list experiment ( N = 1228 ) to estimate the effect of a candidate’s sexual orientation on voters choice to abstain from voting for that candidate. Using a same-sex partner as a proxy for sexual orientation, the results show that 34 percent of voters reject a candidate with a same-sex partner, compared to 5–10 percent for heterosexual candidates. Contrary to expectations, there is little evidence of social desirability bias: Finnish voters openly report rejecting a candidate in a same-sex relationship. The analysis combines direct questioning, experimental difference-in-means, maximum likelihood estimation, a non-random replication sample ( N = 2200 ), and complementary experimental validation using hypothetical candidates. Accounting for heterogeneous effects, the results indicate that moderates tend to underreport negative views, whereas conservatives tend to overreport them. More urban voters also display a tendency toward underreporting, although this evidence becomes weaker after correcting for multiple comparisons. The study advances understanding of voter discrimination against sexual minorities and the mechanisms shaping its expression.