Risky business? Professional insights on ranking decarbonization risks for the building sector

As the building sector seeks to decarbonize by 2050, advocates and analysts must weigh potential risks of new technological adoptions to avoid negative impacts on communities and ecosystems. This study investigates how building professionals perceive the risks of decarbonizing the building sector, drawing on mixed-method analysis of interviews and survey data from 60 experienced practitioners across two United States cities. Financial loss was the most prominent perceived risk using a post-interview survey, followed by increasing technical-complexity concerns, shortage of low-carbon materials and higher costs of energy and maintenance among others. Energy cost concerns were reflected in potential grid strain and justice concerns of tenant unaffordability. Perceptions of risk salience vary by subgroup of profession, experience, and location. We recommend integrated planning and utilization of multi-faceted risk assessment frameworks to ensure equitable risk evaluation in sectoral decarbonization.