Beyond substitution: the moderating effect of the minimum wage on robot-labour dynamics in China

This study examines the moderating effect of the minimum wage on the relationship between industrial robots and labour mobility in China. Using provincial-industrial panel data from 2006–2019, combining China’s industrial database and IFR robot data, we analyse patterns of labour mobility at both regional and industry levels. To ensure the robustness of the results, we discuss potential collinearity between robot penetration and the minimum wage, as well as the persistence of the relation of the baseline results. Our findings reveal that the minimum wage negatively moderates the positive effect of robots on regional labour mobility while amplifying their impact on inter-industry labour reallocation. Heterogeneity analysis shows these effects are stronger in regions with lower education levels and higher employment rates. Although the minimum wage exhibits no significant lagged effects on regional labour mobility, it demonstrates persistent effects on industrial labour mobility. Long-term analysis further indicates that the minimum wage amplifies robots’ negative influence on regional labour flows while enhancing industrial labour reallocation. These findings suggest the need for coordinated policies that consider both automation trends and regional labour market characteristics when setting the minimum wage.