ML-Based Feasibility-Prediction for NB-IoT Smart Metre Deployment in Thailand: A Cross-Environment Multi-Site Study

Thailand’s Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) is rolling out Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) under its smart-grid initiative, requiring a reliable last-mile wireless network across heterogeneous propagation environments. Narrowband IoT (NB-IoT) is a leading candidate, but per-area deployment decisions have lacked a data-driven framework anchored to measured Thai propagation. Building on our sixteen-site composite-channel characterisation, this study presents a machine-learning feasibility-prediction framework integrating measured channel parameters (n, σsh, m^), an OpenStreetMap-derived synthetic meter-density layer, and a benchmark of Random Forest, Gradient Boosting (GB), and Multi-Layer Perceptron classifiers trained on Monte-Carlo coverage labels to predict 95% RSRP-coverage feasibility per spatial cell. Across 411 cells from four Thai sites spanning Urban Dense, Urban Outdoor, Suburban, and Rural environments, GB achieves accuracy 0.971 and F1 0.969 at 1.7 ms inference latency—four orders of magnitude faster than direct Monte-Carlo simulation. The ML predictor approximates the Monte-Carlo engine under the assumed composite-channel model. A theoretical LPWAN comparison places NB-IoT as recommended for Suburban and Rural AMI; Suphan Buri (Rural) is the only RECOMMENDED case (88.5% cells feasible), with hybrid PLC backhaul suggested for dense urban areas.