First-year university students’ perceptions of labour market returns from vocational education and training and their relationship with dropout intention

This study examines first-year university students’ perceptions of the labour market returns associated with Vocational Education and Training (VET) and university qualifications, and analyses how these perceptions relate to academic adjustment, dropout intention, and the consideration of VET as an alternative pathway. Drawing on a longitudinal survey conducted between 2024 and 2025 at a mid-sized Spanish university, the research uses multiple correspondence analysis to identify perceptual profiles and bivariate analyses to examine differences between them, the findings reveal three distinct profiles: a pro-university profile prioritising academic degrees, a pro-VET profile emphasising the eployment advantages of vocational qualifications, and an egalitarian profile valuing both options similarly. These profiles differ significantly in terms of prior academic achievement, but not in current academic performance or social and academic integration at university. While overall dropout intention does not vary across profiles, students in the pro-VET group show a stronger inclination over time to pursue VET or enter the labour market. Moreover, students with more favourable views of VET demonstrate greater awareness of its practical orientation, company-based training, affordability, and university-to-VET transfer pathways. Finally, the study discusses policy and practice implications for improving guidance, information, and transitions between both sectors.