Educational transitions and perceived NEET risk among vocational students: the role of entry into VET and experiences during vocational education

Perceived risk of experiencing NEET status (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) reflects young people’s sense of uncertainty regarding their future transition from education to work. This exploratory study examined two educational transitions among vocational students: successful entry into the desired field of study within vocational education and students’ perceived NEET risk regarding their future education-to-work transition. The study used nationally collected cross-sectional survey data from 2024, comprising 7,910 Finnish vocational students aged 15–29 years (45% women). Logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with entering the desired field of study, and hierarchical linear regression was used to examine the associations of structural background characteristics, experiences related to entry into VET, and current educational experiences with perceived NEET risk. Adequate guidance before entering vocational education was associated with a greater likelihood of entering the desired field of study. Entry into the desired field of study and positive educational experiences during vocational education—including school belonging, support during studies, teaching quality, and satisfaction with learning resources—were independently associated with lower perceived NEET risk. By contrast, the association of pre-entry guidance did not remain after current educational experiences were taken into account. Students with low parental education and those reporting a perceived minority background were less likely to enter their desired field of study and reported higher perceived NEET risk. The findings highlight the importance of both successful entry into vocational education and positive educational experiences during vocational studies for students’ expectations concerning their future transition from education to work.