Scenario Planning and Organizational Sustainability: A Literature Review and Conceptual Model

Organizations across the globe face two pressing challenges: navigating uncertainty and embracing sustainability. Traditional strategic approaches have proved inadequate in addressing these issues. This study posits scenario planning as a dynamic capability that drives cognitive and organizational transformations that are essential for achieving organizational sustainability. Through a systematic literature review of 55 peer‐reviewed articles, guided by PRISMA protocols and a two‐level bibliometric analysis of scenario planning and sustainability literature, a conceptual framework is developed grounded in systems theory. Scenario planning is positioned as an environmental input in open systems that generates three throughput mechanisms—creativity, mental models, and organizational learning—which collectively mediate the relationship between scenario planning and organizational sustainability. Research propositions are formulated establishing both direct relationships between scenario planning and each mediating construct (P1–P3) and mediated pathways to organizational sustainability (P4–P6), providing a theoretical agenda for future empirical testing. This study advances theoretical understanding in three domains—dynamic capabilities theory, systems theory, and sustainability literature by explaining the micro‐mechanisms through which scenario planning produces equifinal sustainability outcomes. The framework provides managers and practitioners for institutionalizing scenario planning as an ongoing strategic practice to build organizational resilience and sustainability.