Projected levelized cost of hydrogen for on-site supply technologies in Germany

To comply with German emission targets and support the transition to green hydrogen, this study assesses the future development of the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) for various supply technologies in Germany, assuming an industrial demand of 10,000 t H2 /a between 2030 and 2045. Steam Methane Reforming remains the most cost-effective option until 2030, with costs of 2.70 €/kg H2 , although emission-intensive technologies become increasingly expensive due to rising EU-ETS prices. Plasma pyrolysis could serve as a bridging technology if successfully commercialized, potentially reaching 2.14 €/kg H2 by 2040. From 2045 onward, high-temperature electrolysis becomes competitive when waste heat is utilized, achieving 2.78 €/kg H2 (3.10 €/kg H2 without waste heat). Declining electricity prices reduce LCOH for PEM and AEL electrolysis by about 30% by 2045, while power purchase agreements enable an additional 12.5% reduction by 2030. Despite these improvements, hydrogen costs in Germany remain above current levels in all scenarios through 2045.