Non-Tariff Barriers and China’s Fruit Exports: An Empirical Analysis Based on APEC Countries

With the global green transition of trade and rising sustainable development demands in agri-food trade, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) have become a critical factor influencing the sustainable development of agricultural trade. As a major global producer and exporter of fruits, China’s fruit trade is inevitably affected by non-tariff barriers. This study therefore examines the impacts of NTBs on China’s fruit exports to APEC countries. We use panel data of 13 APEC countries from 2001 to 2023 and apply an extended gravity model. This study takes the total number of TBT and SPS notifications as the proxy variable for NTBs. It empirically tests the trade effect of NTBs on China’s fruit exports and conducts heterogeneity analysis via quantile regression and grouped regression. Baseline results show that NTBs significantly reduce China’s fruit exports. The negative effects of NTBs are more pronounced for small-scale export markets and processed fruit products. Furthermore, China’s economic development can effectively mitigate the adverse trade impacts of NTBs. These findings furnish actionable implications for balancing food safety governance and sustainable agricultural development.