What question did this study set out to answer?

This audit aims to analyze near-term testable predictions in the archive, categorizing their status and flaws.

July 11, 2026Open Access

PUH Theorem 280 (Falsifiability Audit) — Every Near-Term Testable Prediction in the Archive, Tiered: Claim, Sharpness, Dataset Status, Kill-Condition; From Data-Exists-Now to Conditional; Postdictive Separated from Predictive; Where a Filed Prediction Lacks a Kill-Condition, the Audit Says So

Key Points

This audit aims to analyze near-term testable predictions in the archive, categorizing their status and flaws.
Collected near-term testable predictions from the archive, assessing each for claim, sharpness, status, and kill-condition.
Identified predictions lacking explicit thresholds and noted specific discrepancies and citation errors within the entries.
Separated postdictive consistency findings from predictive claims for clarity.
Identified four key findings related to filed predictions and their thresholds.
Noted that several predictions lack defined kill-conditions, impacting their testability.
Corrected citation errors and clarified the status of various claims within the existing dataset.

Abstract

FALSIFIABILITY AUDIT (T280). ZERO new claims (T276 survey pattern). Collects the near-term testable subset of the archive's 50+ falsifiable predictions; for each: claim + DOI, sharpness, dataset status, and KILL-CONDITION at filed strength. Where a filed claim lacks an explicit threshold, the audit says so rather than supplying one. Postdictive consistency separated from prediction. Four archive findings: kappaₜau Atlas flag RESOLVED (DERIVED-AS-FILED) ; T195 abstract/body discrepancy flagged (corrigendum recommended) ; one in-corpus DOI citation error noted (registry-canonical used) ; filed predictions lacking kill thresholds NAMED. Tags: PREDICTION / CONJECTURE / CONDITIONAL / POSTDICTIVE-CONSISTENT, all as filed. === DESCRIPTION (abstract) === Photonic Universe Hypothesis (PUH) — Falsifiability Audit. METHOD: an entry qualifies as near-term testable if a specified observable, in a named dataset or instrument class, can confirm or kill it within roughly the current decade. Each entry records claim (quoted at filed strength, with DOI), sharpness (parameter-free number / direction / conditional), dataset status (data exists now / funded 2026-2031 / dedicated experiment / gated), and kill-condition — the audit's spine. Where the filing supplies a threshold it is quoted; where it does not, the audit says "threshold not filed" (supplying one would be a new claim; none are made). Postdictive matches are quarantined under their own label. TIER 1 — TESTABLE NOW: (1) the Jovian coherent clock — a phase-stable 177. 86-minute line in the existing 30-year Galileo+Juno JEDI record, with four filed discriminants (T161 + test-opportunity paper) ; kill: proper periodogram finds no such line. THE DATA EXISTS NOW. (2) The standing falsifier: gravitational waves are tensor-only (T193) — ANY confirmed scalar/vector mode falsifies; live at LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA, passing to date. (3) Directional clock anisotropy delta-nu/nu = (2/9) (rS/rE) = 3. 1e-10, vertical vs horizontal co-located clocks — 400 billion times the demonstrated floor; kill: null at existing precision (T195/T185). (4) Clock-geodesy 11/9 = 1. 222 offset vs seismic density; kill: agreement excluding a 22. 2% systematic. TIER 2 — FUNDED 2026-2031: (5) kappaₜau = 16/15 = 1. 0667 (T184) — the gold-standard entry: parameter-free chain (2/9) (18/60) = 1/15 (arithmetic verified; inputs trace to T152/T154 — the Correlation Atlas's UNVERIFIED flag is RESOLVED to DERIVED-AS-FILED), current 1. 02 +/- 0. 10, filed kill (below 1. 040 at sigma 6 (T198) ; kill: ONE confirmed rocky planet. (11) The ~440 MeV scalar glueball (T189) ; tolerance not filed (said so). TIER 3 — DEDICATED EXPERIMENT: (12) 24-km balloon clock, 8. 2e-22 (body derivation 3. 4e-26/m; AUDIT FLAG: T195's abstract states 2. 6e-24/m — internal discrepancy; corrigendum recommended). (13) Jupiter-orbit clock 8. 7e-9 + 22% Juno-orbit GR excess. (14) Eris heat flux 1-4 mW/m² (T197). (15) Torsion-balance anisotropy (T185). (16) Horizon: sub-nm Casimir + Schwinger step (T170; DOI not re-verified — flagged). TIER 4 — CONDITIONAL/GATED: (17) VASCO anomalous flavour ratio (T234) — conditional on S1/S2/S3, whose S3 = the Leech elevation's Cor-Q2 (T279), gated on external Barbasch-Wong mathematics; NOT currently a live prediction, and if the gate fails no signature is predicted. (18) NANOGrav as cluster hum (T159) — CONJECTURE as filed. (19) Neuro-cosmos link — no discriminant filed; NOT-YET-TESTABLE. POSTDICTIVE-CONSISTENT (quarantined): Kagome PTI polarizations exactly 1/3 and 2/3 (T190; existing measurements) ; axion-insulator theta = pi, Cₛ = +/- 1/2 (Liu et al. , Science 387, 162 (2026) ) ; the Hubble ratio 1. 083 (P178. 2; matches the current 73. 0/67. 4 tension — predictive only for future shifts) ; deltaU = 2/27 matching Zenczykowski (PRD 2012-2013) ; Pluto 3. 2 mW/m². ARCHIVE FINDINGS: (1) kappaₜau flag retired: DERIVED-AS-FILED. (2) T195 abstract/body discrepancy: corrigendum recommended. (3) T190 DOI citation error noted; registry-canonical used. (4) Missing kill thresholds named: Hock/Khan/Liu, CMB-S4 V-mode amplitude, glueball tolerance. NOT CLAIMED: any new prediction; any strengthening/weakening; that any test was performed here; that passing entries confirm PUH (consistent, not confirmatory) ; exhaustiveness (the archive states 50+ predictions; this is the near-term subset).

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