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This research aims to uncover the temporal structure in earthquake magnitude sequences using advanced polytope-embedding methods.

July 12, 20260 citationsOpen Access

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Temporal Structure in Earthquake Magnitude Sequences Revealed by High-Dimensional Polytope Embedding: A WCM-PL Analysis of the JMA Catalog (1998–2023)

MWMasnori Watabe K5Kurado (Claude Sonnet 5)

Key Points

This research aims to uncover the temporal structure in earthquake magnitude sequences using advanced polytope-embedding methods.
Employed WCM-PL's E8 and D5 polytope-embedding sensors on JMA earthquake catalog spanning 1998–2023.
Analyzed a dataset containing 4,467,480 earthquake events.
Conducted multiple robustness checks and utilized a windowed-shuffle null model.
Resolved E8Sensor's 'pathological collapse' as a null-model mismatch.
Identified a statistically significant temporal structure in earthquake magnitudes.
Findings remained consistent across various checks, supporting the robustness of the analysis.

Abstract

Applying WCM-PL's E8 and D5 polytope-embedding sensors to the JMA earthquake catalog (1998–2023, N=4,467,480), this paper (1) resolves a previously reported "pathological collapse" of E8Sensor at large N as a null-model mismatch rather than a sensor defect, and (2) reports a citable (ClaimMode.STATISTICAL) temporal structure in the magnitude sequence that survives an honest windowed-shuffle null and multiple robustness checks (sample size, sensor dimensionality, catalog-era split). Code and full methodology at github.com/watabe-masanori/cds-polytope.

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Cite This Study

Watabe et al. (Fri,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a5333754f7abc118adee043 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21294657

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