The limits of instinct in countering violent extremism counseling: a theoretical discussion on the development of professional intuition

This paper explores whether professional intuition can reliably develop in Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) counseling, drawing on Kahneman and Klein’s (2009. Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree. American Psychologist, 64(6), 515–526) framework. While professional intuition is valuable and effective in predicting developments and making accurate decisions in some fields, CVE work involves unpredictable, complex, and individualized cases, more akin to psychotherapy or social work. Overconfidence in instinctive or ‘gut feeling’ judgments poses risks, and cognitive biases can distort decision-making. The paper argues for evidence-based, structured approaches in CVE counseling, advocating for structured professional judgment over instinct as this field is highly unlikely to develop professional intuition. These insights aim to support the professionalization of the field and ensure ethical, effective interventions that prioritize the ‘Do-No-Harm’ principle.