Left atrial size predicts outcome in severe but asymptomatic mitral regurgitation

Patients with severe asymptomatic primary mitral regurgitation (MR) can be safely managed with an active surveillance strategy. Left atrial (LA) size is affected by MR severity, left ventricular function and is also associated with the risk of atrial fibrillation and may be an integrative parameter for risk stratification. The present study sought to determine the predictive value of LA size in a large series of asymptomatic patients with severe MR. 280 consecutive patients (88 female, median age 58 years) with severe primary MR and no guideline-based indications for surgery were included in a follow-up program until criteria for mitral surgery were reached. Event-free survival was determined and potential predictors of outcome were assessed. Survival free of any indication for surgery was 78% at 2 years, 52% at 6 years, 35% at 10 years and 19% at 15 years, respectively. Left atrial (LA) diameter was the strongest independent echocardiographic predictor of event-free survival with incremental predictive value for the thresholds of 50, 60 and 70 mm, respectively. In a multivariable analysis that encompassed age at baseline, previous history of atrial fibrillation, left ventricular end systolic diameter), LA diameter, sPAP > 50 mmHg and year of inclusion, LA diameter was the strongest independent echocardiographic predictor of event-free survival (adjusted HR = 1.039, p < 0.001). LA size is a simple and reproducible predictor of outcome in asymptomatic severe primary MR. In particular, it may help to identify patients who may benefit from early elective valve surgery in heart valve centers of excellence.