Re-Examination of the Relationship Between Digital Inclusive Finance and Urban Economic Resilience: From the Perspective of Complex Adaptive System Theory

Economic systems worldwide are facing an urgent need to build resilience, and digital inclusive finance (DIF), as a key component, can effectively enhance urban economic resilience (UER) through technological convergence and resource optimization. Existing research has largely examined the relationship between DIF and UER within a linear causal framework, lacking an in-depth analysis of interactions within complex systems. Drawing on complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory, this study re-examines the relationship between the two using panel data from 283 Chinese cities covering the period 2012–2024. The findings reveal that: (1) DIF significantly enhances UER, with the strongest promotional effect observed on resistance and recovery capacity, followed by innovation and transformation capacity, whilst the impact on adaptive capacity is relatively minor. (2) There are structural differences in the contributions across dimensions of DIF, and an asymmetric matching relationship exists with the subsystems of UER. (3) Mechanism tests indicate that the process by which DIF enhances UER aligns with three pathways: the reduction of transaction costs, the stimulation of consumer vitality, and the driving force of technological innovation, and that such mediation effects exhibit structural differences at the dimensional level. Furthermore, the enhancement effect of DIF is more pronounced in cities with weaker resilience, demonstrating a convergence effect. This study enriches the application of CAS theory in the field of urban economic governance and provides a reference for developing economies to enhance UER through DIF.