Trade Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Exports: Do Government Subsidies and State Ownership Matter?

ABSTRACT This study examines the causal association between trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and corporate export (Exp) and how government subsidies and state ownership moderate this relationship. Utilising annual data from the Chinese listed firms between 2003 and 2023, the findings reveal a significant adverse influence of TPU on corporate exports. This adverse effect is weaker for firms receiving government subsidies and state‐owned firms. Additional analyses indicate that the negative influence of TPU on exports is less pronounced for large‐sized firms during the post‐Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and pre‐COVID‐19 periods. The findings highlight the diverse responses of firms to TPU and underscore the pivotal role of government subsidies and state ownership in sustaining export performance. These findings offer significant implications for emerging market economies aiming to formulate more resilient international trade strategies and policies.