Climate change and family farming in Brazil: regional impacts by productivity quantiles

Purpose Family farming (FF) in Brazil, significant in social, economic and environmental terms, is characterized by productive heterogeneity, particularly at the regional level. Climate change, also spatially heterogeneous, influences agricultural productivity. Farmers with higher productivity, due to better control over the production process, tend to be less affected by climate change. In this context, this study analyzes the impacts of climate change on different quantiles of land productivity in FF across Brazil's federal units and macro-regions. Design/methodology/approach The methodology encompasses a microfounded theoretical model that guides the cross-sectional estimation of a quantile regression of land productivity, considering climatic, geographic and productive factors. Findings The results indicate that the intensity of the negative effects of climate change would be more pronounced in the lower productivity quantiles and in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions, highlighting that the climatic phenomenon could exacerbate the vulnerability of the most fragile producers and regional disparities. Research limitations/implications The study uses the average agricultural productivity of a set of crops relevant in economic terms, which generalizes the results. Future advances include the disaggregation of projections by individual crops. Practical implications The results point to negatively affected regions, which can be used by policymakers in the context of climate change adaptation policies. Originality/value The work is an original contribution to the literature on the impacts of climate change on FF productivity. It presents a pioneering approach to regionally analyzing the effects on productivity among different types of family farmers in Brazil, a group that accounts for 77% of the country's agricultural producers.