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The study aims to analyze total factor productivity dynamics in Brazil’s semi-arid region from 2006 to 2017, focusing on its determinants.

Performance and determinants of the agricultural total factor productivity in the Brazilian semi-arid region in the period 2006–2017

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The study aims to analyze total factor productivity dynamics in Brazil’s semi-arid region from 2006 to 2017, focusing on its determinants.
Applied a stochastic frontier approach to microdata from the 2006 and 2017 Agricultural Censuses.
Compared four model specifications: Battese and Coelli (BC92), True Fixed Effects (TFE), True Random Effects (TRE), and Mundlak-TRE (MTRE).
Used TFE model to compute a multiplicative TFP index decomposed into components: technological progress, technical efficiency, scale efficiency, environmental effects, and statistical noise.
Agricultural productivity declined by 0.82% annually, primarily due to negative technical efficiency (–3.13%) and reduced scale efficiency.
Technological progress and favorable environmental conditions partially offset losses but did not reverse the overall trend.
Only 36% of municipalities showed positive productivity growth, indicating structural inefficiencies beyond climatic constraints.

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Estimates total factor productivity dynamics in Brazil’s semi-arid region, indicating significant inefficiencies.

Silva et al. (2026) studied this question.

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