Divergent provincial pathways for climate resilience and rural livelihood security in Northeast China: insights from MM-QR analysis

Climate extremes threaten rural livelihood resilience in Northeast China, while aggregate data hide provincial differences in vulnerability and adaptation. This study addresses this gap by investigating the divergence of climate resilience and adaptive strategies that mediate the impact of daily climate shocks on farmer livelihoods. Utilizing panel data (2003–2020) and a Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MM-QR) approach, the investigation uncovers distinct provincial profiles. The results demonstrate that in Heilongjiang, farmers’ grain production is sensitive to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), while drought is associated with the cultivated sown area. Jilin’s farmers are constrained by drought, which limits the cultivated area, whereas Liaoning’s agricultural output is stabilized by insurance and mechanization. Dumitrescu-Hurlin Granger tests further suggest bidirectional and region-specific short-run predictive relationships among agricultural outcomes, climate stressors, and adaptation-related variables. These findings underscore that rural livelihood security requires tailored governance, rather than one-size-fits-all policies, prioritizing water management in Heilongjiang and Jilin and optimizing technological inputs in Liaoning. This evidence is crucial for designing targeted interventions that secure farmer incomes. This research contributes to advancing knowledge in the nexus between the triple type of climate-agriculture-rural livelihood security, offering insights to enhance regional food security under the effects of climate events.