Export survival in seafood trade: Evidence from China’s tilapia exports

The dynamics of seafood trade play an important role in shaping how trade patterns evolve to exploit new opportunities and address new challenges. Tilapia is one of the most successful emerging aquaculture species, and China accounts for a significant share of global tilapia trade. China’s exports are characterized by a supply of differentiated product forms across high-income and lower-income countries. This paper investigates the duration of trade relationships for China’s tilapia exports for three product forms. The results indicate that most trade relationships are short-lived, with 27% ending after the first year. Survival rates vary substantially across product forms and destination markets, with processed tilapia exhibiting significantly higher survival rates relative to frozen whole fish and frozen fillets. Moreover, larger initial export volumes, free trade agreement membership and higher destination income significantly extend trade duration, with the effects concentrated in processed product categories.