Future climate and land-use changes reveal large variability of range shift responses among functionally distinct freshwater fish

Climate and land-use change are two interconnected drivers of the ongoing global redistribution of biodiversity. While species' range shifts are contextual to their functional traits, such dependencies remain poorly understood. Here, we project the redistribution of 101 Chinese freshwater fish species under future climate and land-use change using species distribution models, quantify the extent of projected range shifts for each species, and assess the relationships between projected shifts and functional exposure. Here, we refer to functional exposure as the assessment of the strength of association between traits and projected shifts across fish species. Most Chinese freshwater fish are projected to experience altitudinal and latitudinal shifts resulting in broad diversity turnovers across regions; this overarching pattern intensifies under more extreme scenarios and longer time horizons. Importantly, higher range contractions and smaller expansions are associated to species with small body size, large eggs, and narrow elevational range, while those with high fecundity and parental care experienced less expansions and contractions. We argue that better understanding the links between exposure to projected changes in climate and land-use and species’ functional traits has important implications for biodiversity conservation and management.