Risk of Diabetes Mellitus after First-Attack Acute Pancreatitis: A National Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVES: Population-based data on the risk of diabetes mellitus onset after acute pancreatitis (AP) are lacking. We assessed the incidence of diabetes in AP survivors compared with matched controls. METHODS: The study cohort, drawn from Taiwan National Health Insurance claims data, included 2,966 first-attack AP patients and 11,864 non-AP general controls individually matched on age and sex, with an AP/non-AP ratio of 1:4. Incidence rate was estimated under Poisson assumption. Relative risks of diabetes were indicated by hazard ratios (HRs) estimated from Cox proportional hazard regression models with a partitioning of time at 3 months to account for proportionality. RESULTS: In the first partition of time (<3 months), the incidences of diabetes were 60.8 and 8.0 per 1,000 person-years in AP and control groups, respectively; representing a covariate-adjusted HR of 5.90 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.37-10.34). In the second partition (≥3 months), the incidences of diabetes were 22.5 and 6.7 per 1,000 person-years in AP and control groups, respectively (adjusted HR 2.54, 95% CI 2.13-3.04). In the second partition, the risk of diabetes was greater in men than in women (HR 3.21 vs. 1.58, P=0.0004). When the analyses were stratified by severity of AP, the results for mild AP were similar to those for all AP. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of diabetes increases by twofold after AP; therefore, a long-term screening is necessary to evaluate diabetes after an attack regardless of severity. Further research should be conducted to develop cost-effective follow-up strategies, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of the relationship between diabetes and AP.