Forecasting migration pressure in Greece: a hidden Markov model for scenario-based policy planning

Migration to Greece is a structural feature of the country’s social and political life, yet inflows fluctuate sharply, repeatedly straining reception, asylum and welfare systems. This article develops a pilot prediction model using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to identify latent ‘regimes’ of migratory pressure and derive evidence-based policy implications. Using harmonized quantitative data on arrivals, the model distinguishes three flow scenarios, soft, medium and hard, each reflecting distinct ranges and patterns of annual inflows. The regimes are discussed in relation to key geopolitical and socio-economic developments and used to derive scenario-based policy implications for reception capacity, asylum processing, and local welfare and integration. The engagement with securitization and human security is used as a contextual lens to interpret policy trade-offs. The article then sets out targeted implications for reception capacity, asylum processing, local welfare and integration, calibrated to each regime and to the institutional constraints of Greek migration governance.