Do Betting Markets Sense a Goal Coming? Evidence From the German Bundesliga

We investigate whether betting markets anticipate news by analyzing bookmaker odds and betting stakes before the first goal in football matches. Using high-resolution (1 Hz) data from a European bookmaker covering one season of Germany’s top league, we apply regression and state-space models to examine odds and stakes movement before the first goal—a key event influencing match outcomes. Results show that both bookmakers and bettors significantly adjust their behavior in response to match dynamics but do not anticipate goals. This absence of predictive adjustment is consistent with semi-strong form efficiency in the pregoal period, in the sense that odds and stakes do not move beyond what can be explained by publicly observable match dynamics.