Synapse
⌘+K
Synapse
PulseExploreClubsResearchersJournals
Instagram
HomeClubsExplore
June 27, 2022Frontiers in EpidemiologyOpen Access

Application of the illness-death model projected a 1.3% decrease in anxiety disorders among women and an 8.5% increase among men in Germany by 2030, differing from simple prevalence extrapolation.

View Full Paper
Ask AI
Bookmark
Share

Why the study?

Estimates of future disease burden support public health decision-making, but multistate modeling of chronic diseases remains limited.

Population

Individuals with anxiety disorders in Germany from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 data and population projections

Comparison

Illness-death model approach vs simple extrapolation of prevalence

Design

Multistate mathematical modeling study

Key result

Application of the illness-death model projected a 1.3% decrease in anxiety disorders among women and an 8.5% increase among men in Germany by 2030, differing from simple prevalence extrapolation.

Authors

CIChisato ItoTKTobias KurthBBBernhard T. Baune

Discussion

Loading...

Member takes

Overview

New discrete-time illness-death recursion enables chronic disease projections; leaves open validation and cardiovascular applications.

Structured PICO

P
Population
Population-level projection of individuals with anxiety disorders in Germany from 2019 to 2030 using Global Burden of Disease 2019 data and federal population projections.
E
Exposure
Illness-death model with discrete time steps and extended recursion formula taking remission into account
C
Comparator
Simple extrapolation of prevalence
O
Outcome
Projected total number of individuals with anxiety disorders by sex in Germany from 2019 to 2030

The illness-death model with discrete time steps provides a framework for projecting chronic disease burden, yielding different estimates than simple prevalence extrapolation when applied to anxiety disorders.

Limitations

  • GBD data used for baseline incidence and prevalence are estimates generated through Bayesian meta-regression.
  • Mortality risk ratio used for projection was not age- or country-specific.
  • Irregularities in estimated remission probabilities (values below 0 or >1) were observed and omitted.
  • Assumed that the prevalence of anxiety disorders among the German population and migrants were similar.

Cite This Study

Ito et al. (2022) studied Anxiety disorders. Illness-death model vs. Simple prevalence extrapolation was evaluated on Projected change in number of individuals with anxiety disorders from 2019 to 2030. Application of the illness-death model projected a 1.3% decrease in anxiety disorders among women and an 8.5% increase among men in Germany by 2030, differing from simple prevalence extrapolation.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a5f359da182e0e07daf2f00https://doi.org/10.3389/fepid.2022.903652
View Full Paper
Ask AI
Bookmark
Share

Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Projecting multimorbidity and mortality under demographic change and preventive interventions2026
  2. 2Forecast of dementia prevalence in Germany and subnational regions until 2060 using microsimulation2026
  3. 3Foundation models, deep learning, and statistical methods for disease burden forecasting: a 10-model comparison using GBD 2023 data2026
  4. 4Maximum likelihood estimation for aggregate current status data: Simulation study using the illness-death model for chronic diseases with duration dependency2024
  5. 5Estimation of the Global Disease Burden of Depression and Anxiety between 1990 and 2044: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 20192024 · 66 citations