Abstract The study examines how strategic considerations influence green relocation decisions for value chain steps in energy-intensive industries located in renewable energy resource-scarce regions. The empirical analysis draws on 66 semi-structured interviews with experienced managers and experts from steel, chemical, and renewable energy sectors worldwide, but from a European perspective. The results reveal three recent global tendencies: a slowed yet ongoing sustainable transition, increasing cost pressures, and growing national ambitions to achieve energy and resource independence. In this context, both local green hydrogen production and large-scale hydrogen imports ultimately prove unfeasible in the long term for energy-intensive industries located in renewable energy resource-scarce regions in Europe. Instead, importing intermediates and semi-finished products like hot-briquetted iron and green urea from renewable energy resource-rich regions emerges as strategically favorable. This leads to a policy-supported tripartite strategy for European energy-intensive industries: consolidating high-quality downstream production, maintaining minimal full value chain capacity in renewable energy resource-rich European regions (e.g., Nordics, Iberia), and globally diversifying upstream imports through green relocation. Canada, the Middle East, and leading African/South American countries emerge as prime targets via a novel value chain positioning model derived from existing literature. The study contributes to the literature by enhancing understanding of an evolving industrial ecology characterized by reconfigured value chains and material flows, highlighting strategic considerations that extend beyond the research’s empirical scope. It offers directions for future research and provides actionable guidance for policymakers and firms navigating green industrial transitions.
Colen et al. (Mon,) studied this question.