Planning for maladaptation: an environmental justice analysis of cultural heritage and flood depths in Louisiana’s 2023 Coastal Master Plan

Louisiana’s 2023 Coastal Master Plan, a major state-led climate adaptation initiative, aims to reduce impacts from sea level rise and stronger storms. However, adaptation projects can worsen social inequalities. This study assesses the Plan’s maladaptive risks by: (1) identifying project types and evaluating cultural adaptation approaches; (2) conducting a socio-economic analysis of predicted flood depths. All projects physically alter coastal environments, while ‘nonstructural’ risk reduction is funded but not specifically planned. Over a third of the coastal population will see little change in flood depths over the next 50 years; most will likely face increased flooding. The Plan’s benefits are unequally distributed: urban and moderately dense areas gain most, while many rural areas remain vulnerable. By prioritising technocratic over community-driven and culturally adaptive approaches, the Plan risks reinforcing inequalities and maladaptive outcomes. These findings highlight the need for policy evaluation across governance scales before implementation to avoid maladaptation and support equitable adaptation.