Determinants of spatial differentiation in municipal bond issuance in Poland: A county-level analysis

This study explores the drivers of geographical disparities in municipal bond issuance across Poland using a highly granular county-level approach (N=380). It utilises a unique dataset from the Register of Issuer Obligations (RIO), containing all active municipal bonds as of 2024. The data were geocoded and assigned to specific counties (poviats), allowing for the precise identification of local debt determinants. The Global Moran's I test revealed no significant spatial autocorrelation, indicating that bond issuance patterns are driven primarily by local fundamentals rather than spillover effects. Consequently, an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model with heteroscedasticity-consistent (robust) standard errors was employed. The findings confirm that issuance is most strongly associated with high debt service costs and positive net migration (reflecting investment pressure). Conversely, distance from Warsaw and local wealth (PIT revenue) proved to be significant negative determinants, supporting the financial centre–periphery hypothesis and the substitution effect between own revenues and debt financing.