From foe to friend? Government–opposition conflict and the appointment of cabinet ministers

This paper introduces a dynamic theory of ministerial appointments in coalition governments, arguing that party leaders reward members of parliament (MPs) who fulfilled their expected roles in the prior government–opposition conflict. Using all speeches from the German Bundestag of six decades (1961–2021), we estimate MPs’ expressed positions on the government–opposition conflict dimension and assess their effect on cabinet selection. Contrary to the expectation that party leaders prefer moderate ministers to foster cooperation, we find that more loyal MPs—strong government defenders or fierce critics—are more likely to be appointed. These findings highlight how past parliamentary behavior affects future cabinet formation and suggest that ministerial appointments are shaped by partisan loyalty and role fulfillment.