Energy Technology Innovation, Fossil Fuel-Based Electricity Generation, and Environmental Sustainability: Empirical Evidence from Major Emitting Economies

This study examines the association between the fossil fuel share in electricity generation, energy-related climate change mitigation technologies, and CO2 emissions in four selected major emitting economies—China, the United States, India, and Russia—over the period 1990–2023. Using an extended STIRPAT framework, the analysis considers both consumption-based and territorial CO2 emissions per capita to distinguish between demand- and production-side perspectives on environmental responsibility. The fossil fuel electricity variable is measured as the combined share of electricity generated from coal, oil, and gas in total electricity generation and is further disaggregated into coal-, oil-, and gas-based shares. Energy-related technological innovation is proxied by the share of climate change mitigation technologies related to energy generation, transmission, or distribution among environment-related technologies. The baseline ECM and Driscoll–Kraay fixed-effects estimates indicate that the aggregate fossil fuel share in electricity generation is positively associated with both emissions measures, while the technology variable is negatively associated with emissions. However, the FMOLS estimates are less consistent, suggesting that long-run coefficients are sensitive to estimator choice. Country-level disaggregated estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity across fuels and countries, with coal-based electricity generation showing the most consistent positive association with emissions in China, India, and the United States. The findings suggest that electricity sector decarbonization in major emitters should prioritize coal substitution, renewable-energy deployment, grid modernization, and targeted energy-technology innovation, while climate responsibility assessments should consider both territorial and consumption-based emissions.