Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise

The selection of materials for road construction in the United States is based on assumptions of a stationary climate. With increasing temperatures, upholding these practices could add up to US26. 3 billion in US-wide maintenance costs by 2040 under RCP8. 5. Roadway design aims to maximize functionality, safety, and longevity1, 2. The materials used for construction, however, are often selected on the assumption of a stationary climate1, 3. Anthropogenic climate change may therefore result in rapid infrastructure failure and, consequently, increased maintenance costs, particularly for paved roads where temperature is a key determinant for material selection. Here, we examine the economic costs of projected temperature changes on asphalt roads across the contiguous United States using an ensemble of 19 global climate models forced with RCP 4. 5 and 8. 5 scenarios. Over the past 20 years, stationary assumptions have resulted in incorrect material selection for 35% of 799 observed locations. With warming temperatures, maintaining the standard practice for material selection is estimated to add approximately US13. 6, US19. 0 and US21. 8 billion to pavement costs by 2010, 2040 and 2070 under RCP4. 5, respectively, increasing to US14. 5, US26. 3 and US35. 8 for RCP8. 5. These costs will disproportionately affect local municipalities that have fewer resources to mitigate impacts. Failing to update engineering standards of practice in light of climate change therefore significantly threatens pavement infrastructure in the United States.