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Global fossil fuel CO 2 emissions have grown 0.8% per year on average between 2019 and 2025. Here we project a decrease of 0.4% in 2026, probably as a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict. Electric vehicles and solar and wind power offset about 64–79% of increasing emissions from demand growth through 2028; acceleration in clean technology deployment is needed to guarantee emissions peak and subsequent decline.
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Quéré et al. (2026) studied this question.
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