Authoritarian consolidation vs. democratic resilience: comparative post-Soviet trajectories of Russia and Ukraine

This study examines the divergent transitional trajectories of Ukraine and Russia over recent decades using expanded version of the triple transition framework. Drawing on statistical and graphical analyses of multiple indicators, the study documents a widening gap between the two countries: Ukraine has strengthened democratic institutions, diversified its economy, and embraced a civic national identity, whereas Russia has consolidated authoritarianism, deepened resource dependence and an imperial ideology. Despite cultural closeness and similar starting conditions shaped by communist rule, the two societies have evolved in different directions, with divergence most pronounced in political institutions and societal values. Although the study does not directly test causal hypotheses, it contributes to identifying plausible developmental determinants underlying these contrasting trajectories. The findings suggest that the Russian invasion of Ukraine should be understood not as a conflict between two similar transitional states but as an assault by an imperialist rentier dictatorship on an emerging democracy.