Sectoral training matters more than improvement in foundation skills: how Australian VET programs are associated with graduate employability

Purpose This study questions whether foundational skills are associated with occupational mobility in Australian VET for those employed prior to taking up VET training, or if sectoral context matters more. We test whether gains in numeracy/literacy/problem solving skills outweigh training package type as the strongest predictor of career advancement. Design/methodology/approach We analyze 2023 NCVER survey data (n = 64,873) of employed VET completers who were also employed prior to their training, calculating occupational status gain using McMillan's ANZCO-based scale. Regression and dominance analysis assess impacts of skill improvements, training package, qualification level, age and gender. Findings Average gain was 2.7 points. Self-reported writing improvement showed modest benefit; self-reported numeracy gains correlated with lower status; self-reported problem-solving had weak effect. ICT and Aeroskills delivered highest gains; Furnishing and Transport and Logistics showed negative outcomes. Younger graduates (20–24 yrs) gained nearly double older cohorts. Practical implications VET policy must prioritise alignment with high-growth sectors over generic skills training. Curricula in underperforming areas should be restructured with industry input. Investment in ICT, and advanced manufacturing yield far greater employability returns. Originality/value First study using dominance analysis to show training package dominates occupational gains in VET, not skill improvement. We reframe success as systemic not individual, thus challenging policy orthodoxy.