Mountain permafrost distribution modelling using a multi-criteria approach in the Hövsgöl area, northern Mongolia

Lake Hövsgöl is located on the southern fringe of the continuous permafrost zone in northern Mongolia. This paper describes a GIS-based empirical permafrost model that is calibrated with ground temperature observations, and utilises a multi-criteria approach to derive zones of permafrost favourability based on terrain parameters and land cover information. The scores are derived either by logistic regression or from satellite image information. The model is validated by DC resistivity tomography measurements. The overall permafrost distribution in the study area is well-described and the method appears to be a valid approach for mapping permafrost at both local and regional scales in mountain areas with low data coverage.