The Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) demonstrated better discrimination for 30-day mortality than the ASA-PS and Surgical Risk Scale (AUC 0.91; 95% CI 0.88-0.94; P<0.001).
Observational (n=16,788)
Yes
Does the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) accurately predict 30-day mortality after non-cardiac surgery compared to existing risk scales?
The SORT is a simple, 6-variable tool that provides highly accurate prediction of 30-day mortality risk for adults undergoing non-cardiac surgery.
Effect estimate: AUC 0.91 (95% CI 0.88-0.94)
p-value: p=< 0.001
BACKGROUND: Existing risk stratification tools have limitations and clinical experience suggests they are not used routinely. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a preoperative risk stratification tool to predict 30-day mortality after non-cardiac surgery in adults by analysis of data from the observational National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) Knowing the Risk study. METHODS: The data set was split into derivation and validation cohorts. Logistic regression was used to construct a model in the derivation cohort to create the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT), which was tested in the validation cohort. RESULTS: Prospective data for 19 097 cases in 326 hospitals were obtained from the NCEPOD study. Following exclusion of 2309, details of 16 788 patients were analysed (derivation cohort 11 219, validation cohort 5569). A model of 45 risk factors was refined on repeated regression analyses to develop a model comprising six variables: American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) grade, urgency of surgery (expedited, urgent, immediate), high-risk surgical specialty (gastrointestinal, thoracic, vascular), surgical severity (from minor to complex major), cancer and age 65 years or over. In the validation cohort, the SORT was well calibrated and demonstrated better discrimination than the ASA-PS and Surgical Risk Scale; areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were 0·91 (95 per cent c.i. 0·88 to 0·94), 0·87 (0·84 to 0·91) and 0·88 (0·84 to 0·92) respectively (P < 0·001). CONCLUSION: The SORT allows rapid and simple data entry of six preoperative variables, and provides a percentage mortality risk for individuals undergoing surgery.
Protopapa et al. (Wed,) conducted a observational in Non-cardiac surgery (n=16,788). Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) vs. ASA-PS and Surgical Risk Scale was evaluated on 30-day mortality (discrimination measured by area under the ROC curve) (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94, p=< 0.001). The Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) demonstrated better discrimination for 30-day mortality than the ASA-PS and Surgical Risk Scale (AUC 0.91; 95% CI 0.88-0.94; P<0.001).