Democratic backsliding through bureaucratic capture: state power and institutional mimicry in Nigeria

Democratic backsliding increasingly unfolds not through abrupt regime breakdowns, but through the gradual reconfiguration of state institutions within formally democratic systems. This article examines Nigeria’s Fourth Republic (1999-2025) as a case of bureaucratic capture, demonstrating how public administration functions as a mechanism through which democratic erosion is reproduced without overt democratic rupture. Drawing on Historical Institutionalism and Ekeh’s theory of the Two Publics, the study argues that colonial and military legacies produced a path-dependent bureaucratic–political nexus that consolidates executive power while preserving democratic procedures. Methodologically, the study employs a mixed-methods design combining a survey of 316 civil servants across three federal ministries with semi-structured interviews. Quantitative analysis utilizes a Governance Index (0-100) to assess the relationship between bureaucratic capture and institutional resilience. The findings reveal a condition of systemic capture in which bureaucratic capture (76.9) exceeds institutional resilience (66.4), generating a governance asymmetry (-10.5). This imbalance sustains democratic backsliding through institutional mimicry: accountability institutions remain formally operational while their substantive autonomy is constrained by patronage networks and politically mediated administrative control. The article demonstrates that democratic erosion in Nigeria operates through institutional continuity rather than collapse, contributing to debates on democratic backsliding, public administration, and postcolonial governance.