Urban dystopias: crime around the Utopías in Mexico City

This paper evaluates Mexico City’s Utopías, a network of large community complexes designed to activate situational crime-prevention mechanisms. Using monthly georeferenced crime data (2017–2024) and a staggered difference-in-differences estimator, we compare AGEBs within 300 metres of each Utopía to not-yet-treated areas. The results show clear heterogeneity: significant reductions in intentional injuries, simple drug possession, mass event theft, public-service vehicle theft without violence, and RTP robbery with violence, but increases in shoplifting, property damage, intimidation, violent vehicle theft, pickpocketing on public transport, and homicide by beating. These mixed effects are consistent with Situational Crime Prevention (SCP) predictions about differential mechanism activation under conditions of inequality and institutional fragility, as spatial activation strengthens guardianship while simultaneously expanding opportunities for opportunistic crime. The study shows how environmental design performs under inequality and highlights the need for sustained management to mitigate criminogenic spillovers.